Energy Budget Forecasting — Variance

Problem

Why Does the Energy Budget Deviate?

Energy bills can account for 15–30% of total monthly expenditure in large facilities. But the real figure is not known until month-end; budget deviations are only understood when the invoice arrives.

The Argus Budget module is not a “black-box AI”: it compares the set budget against actual consumption every day and shows the direction (favourable/unfavourable) and magnitude of the variance line by line (electricity, water, gas). Which item caused the variance is transparent; the detailed forecasting algorithm is explained on the projection page.projeksiyon sayfası açıklar.

Argus Budget Module

Separate projections for electricity, water, and gas

TEDAŞ day/peak/night tariff cost forecast

Reactive penalty forecast included

Department/building sub-projection

Budget vs actuals deviation alarm

Monthly CFO summary report (PDF, automatic email)

How Does Variance Analysis Work?

No black box. Where every figure comes from is visible; the variance is drilled down to the responsible line item.

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Budget Definition

The annual or monthly budget is entered by line item (electricity kWh + cost, water m³, gas). If you prefer, it is derived automatically from last year's actuals plus a percentage increase. Seasonality is preserved when the budget is spread across months; the winter gas and summer cooling weighting is reflected according to the real distribution.

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Actual Measurement

Daily actual consumption is computed from meter and transformer readings. For the current month, the end-of-month expectation is updated by prorating the real trend over the elapsed days.

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Variance Calculation

Variance = Actual − Budget; shown both in absolute terms (TL, kWh) and as a percentage. The direction (favourable/unfavourable) is separated by colour code; an alarm is raised when the threshold is exceeded. Monthly values also accumulate into the cumulative annual variance, so the year-end budget-closing risk becomes visible early.

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Root Cause

Which item (electricity or gas), which building, or which department drove the variance is drilled down. So the question 'why did the bill rise?' is answered with data, not guesswork.

Budget Variance Questions

What is the difference between this page and the projection page?

This solution focuses on tracking actuals against a defined budget and explaining the variance line by line; transparency is the priority. The forward-looking end-of-month forecasting algorithm (YoY, weather, and occupancy correlation) is described separately on the projection page. The two work together: the forecast explains the future, variance analysis explains the past and present.projeksiyon sayfasında ayrı anlatılır. İkisi birlikte çalışır: tahmin geleceği, sapma analizi geçmişi ve bugünü açıklar.

Why do you say it is not a “black-box AI”?

Because the input behind every variance line (budget value, reading source, tariff) can be viewed and audited. The figure presented to the CFO is not an unexplained model output; it is a traceable calculation. This is critical for trust and auditability in financial reporting.

When is the variance alarm triggered?

The threshold is set per project; typically a warning email is sent when the end-of-month expectation exceeds the budget by 10%. Because small variances can be noise in the early weeks, the alarm becomes more sensitive as the month progresses and data strengthens.

We have no gas meter; can it still be included in the budget?

Yes. Items without a meter (e.g. gas) are included in the budget via external invoice entry; the actual value is read from the monthly bill. This way all energy items are consolidated into a single table and the total budget variance is shown holistically.

Energy Budget Variance Analysis